P&J Article: 08:50 - 16 October 2007
To the commuters seething in their cars at Aberdeen's most notorious traffic bottlenecks, the bypass promises to spell the end to nose-to-tail jams on the Haudagain roundabout or inching at snail's pace across the Bridge of Dee.
So claims by opponents of the bypass that the proposed Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route will have only "miniscule" impact on traffic levels on some of the busiest routes - and in some cases, make the problems even worse - will have some motorists wondering if the new road really is going to be the answer to their prayers.
With best estimates putting the final cost of the AWPR at between £295million and £395million - considerably more than the £120million tag put on the project five years ago - many might even be wondering if it is really worth all that expense and bother to take a few thousand cars a day off the roads.
Anti-bypass campaign group Road Sense claims traffic levels at four of the worst pressure points around Aberdeen will not be significantly altered by the proposed bypass.
The group claims that, by 2012, traffic at Auchmill Road would be reduced by less than 1% from the level it was at in 2005. On North Anderson Drive, they predict traffic would be reduced by just 5% from the 2005 level. And at Bridge of Dee and Marywell, to the south, they forecast a reduction of around 3% on 2005 rates.
Worse still, Road Sense suggests traffic will actually increase on key routes into the city if the AWPR goes ahead.
Campaigners say traffic levels between Westhill and the bypass would rise by nearly a quarter - 24% - on the 2005 figure, traffic levels at Bellfield, between Kingswells and the city, would increase by 12%, and at Balmedie, traffic would rise by 48%, compared with 2005 levels.
Road Sense spokeswoman Sheona Warnock said the predictions could not be disputed since the figures were taken from the AWPR team's own website.
She said: "We feel we have to get the message across to the people who are sitting in traffic every morning, thinking 'When is this bloody bypass going to be built so we can start moving again'.
"If it does come, they will still be sitting in traffic. The bypass really isn't going to take that many cars off the existing roads and in some places it is going to make the problem worse because people will change their journeys to get on to the bypass route."
She said people should also bear in mind that the suggested reductions in traffic would only come about if the other elements of the Modern Transport System planned for the north-east - including an Aberdeen crossrail scheme, improved bus services and an extended park-and-ride network - were also in place by 2012.
But while Road Sense have, not surprisingly, zoned in on routes where the impact might be less positive, the document they refer to suggests other routes can expect much more dramatic reductions in traffic levels.
And as the number of road-users continues to rise, the price of not taking action might be even longer tailbacks with the potential to cripple the north-east economy.
At Bridge of Dee, traffic levels are likely to fall modestly from 30,100 vehicles a day to 29,200 in 2012 if the AWPR and Modern Transport System go ahead. But without action, the figure could be as high as 34,300 a day, rising to 35,600 in 2027.
And at Auchmill Road, a reduction from 36,100 vehicles a day in 2005 to 35,900 in 2012 might indeed seem modest. But the estimate of 41,700 vehicles a day in 2012 if the bypass doesn't go ahead hardly bears thinking about.
Bypass bosses defended their plans yesterday, insisting the AWPR would be effective in curbing congestion and would result in long-term benefits to the region.
And Sheila Rainger, of the RAC Foundation, said campaigners shouldn't underestimate the difference that even a few thousand vehicles could make to reducing traffic jams.
"We would argue that a 5% reduction in traffic is actually very significant," she said.
"A small reduction in traffic tends to lead to larger falls in congestion. In London, congestion fell by twice the amount of the traffic reduction following the introduction of the congestion charge, so Aberdeen could be looking at a reduction in congestion of up to 10%."
